Agri-Food Trade in Transition: Trends and Insights from Christophe Lafougère
For the third consecutive year, Christophe Lafougère, international trade consultant at GIRA, delivered a compelling presentation at the Groupe Export agri-food export summit. Over the course of an hour, he offered a data-rich overview of global trade trends, emerging market opportunities, and key challenges stemming from geopolitical tensions—particularly between the United States and China.
United States: A Dominant but Pressured Partner
The United States remains the world’s leading exporter of food products, with key export flows directed toward Canada, Mexico, Europe, China, South Korea, and Japan. Thanks to CUSMA, Canadian exports to the U.S. have increased by 60% since 2000, especially in sectors like bakery, confectionery, vegetables, and seafood.
However, this mutual dependency raises concerns: the U.S. industry relies heavily on ingredients imported from Canada, Mexico, and China. A quick diversification of supply chains seems unlikely, potentially opening strategic opportunities for Canadian exporters.
China: Moving Toward Agri-Food Self-Sufficiency
In response to ongoing trade tensions with the U.S., China is working to partially relocate food production within its borders. One key initiative includes ramping up domestic cheese production—along with whey, a vital byproduct. This push for food sovereignty is creating a shifting commercial landscape for international exporters.
Japan, Europe, and the UK: High-Value Markets
Japan is a top destination for Canadian products, particularly gourmet, organic, functional foods, and pork. The image of Canadian—and especially Quebec—products is excellent, associated with quality and authenticity.
In Europe, new trade agreements and strengthened collaboration with the United Kingdom are creating promising opportunities. The UK has become the second-largest export market for Quebec-made products, especially those aligned with health trends, plant-based proteins, lower sugar/calorie content, and eco-friendly single-serve packaging.
Product Trends and Emerging Consumer Behaviors
Mr. Lafougère concluded by highlighting several high-potential product categories for international expansion: chocolate, seafood, meat (with a focus on pork), dairy, and fruit. He also pointed to key market trends: the growing role of protein in all its forms, increased demand for “free-from” products (lactose, gluten, fat, additives), the influence of health-driven items like Ozempic, and rising interest in sustainability.
To receive the full PowerPoint presentation from the conference, please contact us at servicemembre@groupexport.ca. *Available exclusively to members of Groupe Export agroalimentaire.